Something that we’ve been thinking a lot about since we founded 404 Media was how one of the worst parts of working at a big company like VICE was the regular layoffs. A cruel aspect of the job was that whenever there was some kind of cataclysmic event that affected the economy—COVID, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, etc—we had the unique pleasure of having to closely follow and cover news that could and often would ultimately result in members of our teams getting laid off. This was always justified with the term “economic headwinds,” a now-famous euphemism that executives used to absolve them of their mismanagement and which were always impossible to "navigate." The implication was that there was simply nothing they could do to prevent this.
We worked hard and did our jobs as best we could but we could also feel the axe about to fall, usually in the form of an email from upper management about “economic headwinds” or something like that, followed by a brutal day of slowly finding out who still had a job. Soon after COVID started, some of us were on a call with executives who told us that despite traffic being higher than ever because of the essential work we were doing, our department was millions of dollars behind its expected ad sales goals, which was not anything the writers and editors had any control over, of course. Pay reductions soon followed, and, after that, there were mass layoffs.
Donald Trump’s tariffs and their manic fluctuating between total global trade war to more limited but still devastating focus on China, stocks taking a nosedive, companies announcing they’re going to stop doing some business in the US, and CEOs putting everything on hold until we’re out of this zone of “economic uncertainty,” means the “headwinds” are here, or it’s at least looking stormy.
We launched 404 Media in August of 2023, and a lot of wild stuff has happened here and in the world since then, but this is the first time we’ve experienced what looks like an imminent recession. What is becoming clear is that, already, there is a significant enough shift in the economy to impact our business.
For that reason, we wanted to give a small update on the state of 404 Media ahead of our second anniversary in August. The short version is that the state of 404 Media is strong. The support of our subscribers has allowed us to make 404 Media our full time jobs since the beginning. One of the reasons we started the company instead of trying to get new jobs at other media companies is because most have many of the problems that VICE did. We believed there was a better way to run a media company, and we are thankfully not in a position where we need to lay ourselves off. In fact, we are in a position where we can continue to focus on making 404 Media better.
From the beginning, we have said that we want to build something that lasts a long time, and that part of our strategy would be to be very conservative with growing the company and to be conservative with how we spend our money, because it makes no sense to have a company that succeeds only when financial times are good but has to fire everyone at the slightest downturn. Our company is doing better than we ever expected it to, but we also have been in the business long enough to know that we cannot expect growth forever, that the advertising market fluctuates wildly, and that the ways people find and consume news are constantly changing. We know that this is a dangerous “macroenvironment” for journalism, as they say, with news outlets being threatened with existentially costly litigation from the president, his regulators and his Department of Justice, state politicians, and rich and powerful people who do not want to face accountability for their actions. We have already been threatened by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
We feel we are currently in a strong financial position and feel endlessly grateful to our subscribers for helping to put us in this position. But the terrible news is that thousands and thousands of people, including federal workers who maintain and operate crucial parts of the government, are losing their jobs. People are either cutting expenses because they lost their jobs, because they are expecting to lose their jobs, or because they are bracing themselves for the rest of the Trump administration now that it’s apparent the dog who caught the car is driving it too.
We know this is what people are thinking and doing because many of them tell us why they are canceling their subscriptions to 404 Media. The notes we get about this are very generous and heartbreaking. People tell us that they really appreciate the work we do and that they will continue to support us when they can, but that at the moment they feel like they have to cut costs. We have all been there, are grateful for the kind words, and will always be grateful for anyone who is or was willing to support us to any degree. We hope it goes without saying, but we never want or expect anyone to support us if it causes them financial hardship.
The good news is that while we’re definitely seeing the impact of all this economic chaos, we are still in a very strong, resilient position. Our growth has slowed for the moment, and it might level off or shrink if the economy keeps going off a cliff, but we still have a ton of support thanks almost entirely to thousands of individual subscribers that make up the vast majority of our revenue and a few other streams of revenue like advertising and merchandise.
We are writing this article to let you know that we are thinking proactively about our business inside of the larger economy, and that we’re in good shape. We have begun to cautiously get more ambitious by bringing on new contributors. About six months ago, science journalist Becky Ferreira started writing The Abstract, our Saturday science-focused newsletter. Last year, Case Hartsfield joined us to help with social media and audience engagement, and has since grown our TikTok, Instagram, and Bluesky accounts significantly so we can reach more people. Most recently, journalist Matthew Gault has started contributing regularly, and we’re taking more commissions as bandwidth allows. One year ago, Jules Roscoe came aboard as the first 404 Media fellow, and in June, we'll have a new intern (stay tuned!). We threw a panel and party at SXSW, which was the first time we’ve thrown an event in a city we didn’t live in; it went very well and we hope to do more of this in the future. We are thinking about how we can bring you more of the journalism we do at a time when the stakes feel higher than ever.
There are also a few things we’re going to try that have worked for other businesses like ours that we haven’t done yet.
Chief among these is a referral program, which companies like Morning Brew have used to build their newsletter lists. The reason a referral program is attractive to us is because, as we have railed endlessly against the algorithmic lottery of social media, we’ve found that the best way for us to grow is from direct, person-to-person recommendations. We have lost count of the number of people who have told us that they found us because a friend or family member told them about us in a group chat, forwarded one of our emails, or was chatting about one of our stories at a party. We want to incentivize this type of recommendation by giving 404 Media merch to people who ask their friends to sign up for our newsletters. We’re not sure how well this will work, but it’s something we want to try and that will start showing up at the bottom of our email newsletters, beginning with this one. There may be some bumps as we get this off the ground and we’re open to feedback on it; we’re using some software that may or may not play well with our email provider, so if you see anything buggy, let us know.
More importantly, since we launched 404 Media we have talked endlessly about how our goal was to do journalism sustainably, and we’ve been extremely conservative precisely because of our experience at VICE and the inevitable, seasonal “headwinds” in the economy.
It’s windy as hell right now but we are prepared. We didn’t overextend ourselves, we aren’t relying on investors who are waiting for a 10x return and are now getting cold feet, and we don’t have to change anything about how we do our journalism because every single business decision we’ve made the entire time was in the service of doing that work as best as possible, for as long as possible.
We want to thank you again if you are already a paid subscriber. If you’re not one yet, you can sign up here. On that page you should see a list of all the benefits you get by becoming a subscriber.
If you’re unable to pay for subscription but still want to support us, there are still plenty of other things we need help with:
- First and always, please tell people about 404 Media. This is how we have built our audience, and it is very, very helpful. Share our stories, share our podcast, forward our newsletter, follow us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube and share our posts there. And please, try out the referral program and let us know how it goes.
- Please keep sending us tips. Some of our best stories started as tips from readers, and nothing helps us grow as much as a good scoop. Our contact info is here.
- Please subscribe to our podcast and leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. We are proud of how good the podcast is getting, and know we have a following that only gets our stories via our free podcast. We think we still have a lot of room to grow there. Just a few more subscribers and reviews can be more helpful than most people can probably imagine.
- Please become a free subscriber if you’re not one already! It’s free, but is very helpful for us in order to reach you with our newsletter directly.
- Advertise with us. If you own or work for a company, tell your marketing team that you read us and that they should consider placing an ad in our podcast or in our newsletter!
- Tell your company / university / school about us. We offer discounted group subscriptions to organizations. Please just tell them to get in touch by emailing emanuel@404media.co or jason@404media.co
- If you’re unable to pay for a subscription but still want to give us money in some other way, we have a tip jar where you can give any amount you want and a merch store with really nice stuff! We have restocked this store and added a few new items in the last few days.
An earlier version of this post originally appeared as part of our weekly Behind the Blog series, available only to paying subscribers. We’ve expanded on it for a wider release.
